Knicks top-3 playoff seeding in jeopardy with 9th toughest schedule to close season
· Yahoo Sports
The Knicks are not safe as a top-three seed in the Eastern Conference. In fact, they’re closer to falling behind the Cleveland Cavaliers as the fourth seed than they are to catching Boston for second in the East.
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And with just five games left in their regular-season schedule before the top-six playoff seeds of each conference lock-in, the Knicks have the ninth-toughest remaining schedule in all of basketball. They hosted the Chicago Bulls at Madison Square Garden on Friday; will enjoy two days of rest before the visiting Atlanta Hawks in a playoff preview at State Farm Arena on April 6; will see two more days of rest before a home back-to-back against a pair of potential playoff matchups in the Boston Celtics and the Toronto Raptors; then play their season finale at The Garden against the Charlotte Hornets, who beat the Knicks on March 6, 114-103, to spur a three-game losing streak.
The Knicks, who are egregiously seven games behind the No. 1-seeded Detroit Pistons, are 2.5 games behind the Celtics for No. 2 and just one game ahead of the fourth-place Cavaliers.
The Cavaliers have the easiest remaining schedule in all of basketball, with two matchups against the Hawks, one game apiece against the tanking Indiana Pacers and Memphis Grizzlies, and a season finale against the dumpster-fire Washington Wizards on the slate.
The Celtics rank dead-center, 15th, in remaining strength of schedule. Boston will play four playoff teams (Knicks, Raptors, Hornets, Magic) and two tanking teams (Pelicans, Bucks) before the regular season ends.
Which puts the Knicks in a bind. Because even if the Knicks lose their April 9 matchup against the Celtics, they’ll still hold the tiebreaker via divisional record should the two teams finish the season with identical win-loss columns. For that to happen, however, the Knicks would need to win four of their final games — not impossible, but improbable — and the Celtics, winners of eight of their last 10 games, would need to lose four of their final six.
That’s just to catch No. 2.
The Knicks need to stay out of fourth place, because doing so effectively guarantees a second-round matchup against No. 1 Detroit, who has beaten New York by 38, 31 and 15 this season and has won six of their last seven matchups against the Knicks. The matchup could be favorable to the Knicks should Cade Cunningham’s health (collapsed lung) remain in question, but the expectation is the Pistons’ All-Star will make a full recovery for the playoffs.
Falling to four would also pit the Knicks against the East’s fifth seed, instead of sixth, though the seeding between Nos. 5 and 10 is still in flux with just four games separating No. 5 Atlanta and No. 10 Miami.
The Heat have the fourth-lightest remaining schedule in the NBA.
And the Cavaliers can win out with ease, or at least cruise to four wins in their last five games should they drop a game against the playoff-bound Atlanta Hawks.
The Knicks hold the tiebreaker with Cleveland and have the same number of games (five) on the schedule, so they can only lose one more game than the Cavs down the stretch without falling to four.
Which begs the question: What’s the most favorable first-round matchup for the Knicks?
Certainly not the Orlando Magic, who can creep up the standings from ninth into the top-six with a strong finish and a little bit of luck. The Hornets are a wild card — the kind of team that can spell imminent doom for the Knicks if they’re not firing on all cylinders.
The Hawks pose issues similar to those of Orlando: they are tough-nosed, physical and have one of the league’s best point of attack defenders in Dyson Daniels to hawk Jalen Brunson the full length of the court, but the Knicks should be able to counter by exposing Atlanta’s inexperienced young core.
The 76ers could pose some problems — heavily hinging on Joel Embiid’s availability and Paul George’s status — but the Knicks should feel confident in that matchup should it arise. They should also feel confident in a first-round matchup against the Toronto Raptors having already beaten them four times this season with one more game left on the schedule.
They shouldn’t feel too confident beyond those rounds, however: The Cavaliers humbled the Knicks in their only game played after the James Harden trade. The Celtics now have Jayson Tatum back and look primed for a revenge tour following last season’s second-round let-down.
And the Pistons?
The Pistons were robbed in Game 6 of their first-round series against the Knicks. Their coach, JB Bickerstaff, wants blood, and he’s gotten it over the course of the regular season.
It all underscores the need for a strong finish over the final five games of the season. Not for seeding, though it’ll help. For this team’s confidence. Because the Knicks haven’t fared well against playoff teams this season. And playoff teams is what they’ll get the rest of the way.