Iran suspects Trump's peace talk push is another trick
· Axios
Iranian officials have told the countries trying to mediate peace talks with the U.S. that they have now been tricked twice by President Trump and "we don't want to be fooled again," according to a source with direct knowledge of those discussions.
The big picture: The U.S. is pushing for in-person peace talks as soon as Thursday in Islamabad, Pakistan. But during the two previous rounds of U.S.-Iran talks, Trump green lit crippling surprise attacks while still claiming to be seeking a deal.
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Flashback: Israel attacked Iran with Trump's backing last June, days before a planned round of nuclear talks.
- Then three weeks ago, the U.S. and Israel reached a tentative agreement in Geneva to continue talks the following week — two days before the U.S. and Israel attacked.
Behind the scenes: Iranian officials have told the mediators — Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey — that U.S. military movements and Trump's decision to deploy major troop reinforcements have increased their suspicion that his proposal for peace talks is just a ruse.
- To the Trump administration, the massing of forces is a sign he's serious about negotiating from gunboats, not that he's negotiating in bad faith. "Trump has a hand open for a deal and the other is a fist, waiting to punch you in the f***ing face," said a Trump adviser.
- The White House has sent messages to the Iranians that Trump is serious about the negotiations, and floated Vice President Vance's possible involvement in the talks as proof.
- Two sources said Witkoff recommended Vance because of the stature of his office and because the Iranians don't see him as a hawk.
What he is saying: On Tuesday, Trump revealed to reporters an apparent trust-building effort with the Iranians.
- "They did something yesterday that was amazing actually. They gave us a present and the present arrived today. It was a very big present worth a tremendous amount of money," Trump said.
- Offering no specifics, Trump said the Iranian "gift" was "oil and gas-related" and connected to the "flow" in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Trump contended that showed the U.S. was dealing with the right people in Tehran. "They said they were going to do it and it happened, and they are the only ones that could have done it."
Yes, but: Trump is simultaneously trying to build up options for diplomacy and military escalation in order to be able to decide based on developments, U.S. and Israeli officials say.
- Those officials say another two to three weeks of war is planned even if talks do take place.
- Trump told Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth on Tuesday to keep up the military pressure on Iran, a White House official said.
- "We negotiate with bombs," Hegseth told reporters in the Oval Office shortly thereafter.
Behind the scenes: The efforts to launch negotiations haven't led to any changes thus far in the orders the Pentagon has given CENTCOM about military operations and planning.
- More reinforcements, including several fighter jet squadrons and thousands of troops, are expected to arrive in the Middle East in the coming days and weeks.
- One Marine expeditionary unit will arrive this week and another is expected to start making its way soon.
- The command element of the 82nd Airborne division has been directed to deploy to the Middle East with an infantry brigade consisting of several thousand troops.
- A White House official said a ground operation is an option but stressed Trump hasn't made a decision.
What to watch: The Iranians received a 15-point U.S. plan through the mediators on Monday morning, several hours before Trump revealed that talks were taking place, sources said.
- At the moment, the U.S. wants to discuss the plan as a package: Ending the war, reopening the strait, lifting sanctions and receiving assurances on Iran's nuclear activity, missile program and support for proxies.
- The U.S. considers the 15-point plan a basis for negotiations and wants Iran to discuss it at an in-person meeting in Pakistan this Thursday, sources say.
- A White House official said Trump is optimistic about the negotiations and a meeting in Pakistan is possible, but nothing has been finalized yet.
The bottom line: The White House official said Iran's priority is to stop the bombing and secure a ceasefire, while the U.S. wants to see if the Iranians will make concessions they weren't willing to make in previous talks.
- Both sides remember how those earlier negotiations ended.