To beat BYU, Texas must slow down a ‘generational talent’ in AJ Dybantsa
· Yahoo Sports
After Tuesday’s thrilling 68-66 win over the NC State Wolfpack in Dayton, the Texas Longhorns took an overnight flight to Portland to begin preparation for Thursday’s matchup against the No. 6 seed BYU Cougars at the Moda Center.
The challenge? To slow BYU freshman forward AJ Dybantsa, a player that Texas head coach Sean Miller called a “generational talent” who has made a compelling case to become the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.
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“I don’t really know what position you want to call him — he can do it all,” Miller said.
At 25.3 points per game, Dybantsa leads the nation in scoring with the help of attempting 284 free throws, which also sets the pace across the country for an average of 84 free-throw attempts per game. Dybantsa has scored 40 or more points twice this season and no opponent has held him to less than 20 points since Kansas did in late January.
“I think his ability to get fouled is maybe unlike anything I’ve seen,” Miller said.
Dybantsa takes advantage of those opportunities by hitting 76.4 percent of his free throws, but his ability to create fouls is a concerning part of his game for a Texas team that has often dealt with a fouling virus, including junior wing Dailyn Swain, who will match up against Dybantsa. Although Swain has reduced his fouling rate from his first two seasons at Xavier at 2.8 fouls per 40 minutes, he’s still prone to bouts of foul trouble thanks to breakdowns in his discipline, resulting in disqualifications in losses to Mississippi State and Kentucky and persistent foul trouble in the road win over Texas A&M.
If Swain does get into foul trouble at the Moda Center, the Longhorns are short on other options with the combination of height and athleticism to handle Dybantsa — junior forward Cam Heide has been a poor defender this season with worse foul discipline than Swain. And the third option is probably graduate guard Tramon Mark, who is four inches shorter than Dybantsa.
A 40-point performance against Kansas State in the Big 12 Tournament illustrates what makes Dybantsa particularly tough to guard — he’s a three-level scorer who is lethal in transition.
“He can do it in and around the rim, driving, kind of in that odd spot, 15 to 17 feet from the basket,” Miller said. “His size, his mobility, his skill level, his mindset of being able to be a smart player and make his teammates better, get to the foul line.”
A 34-percent shooter from three, Dybantsa has enough shot credibility to force closeouts on the catch and uses his size to shoot over small defenders in the mid-range where he shoots 46 percent, often on isolation plays that make it difficult for opponents to send double teams without giving up quick, open shots. Dybantsa is a willing passer who averages 3.8 assists per game, but BYU creates a lot of favorable matchups for him by taking advantage of switches — this is no longer the five-out Cougars offense of the Mark Pope era, as second-year head coach Kevin Young runs actions to create halfcourt opportunities for Dybanta.
Off the bounce, Dybantsa is a dangerous downhill threat with his combination of quickness and power, especially in the open court. In the win over the Wildcats, Dybantsa had three of the nine steals by the Cougars, contributing to 18 points off turnovers and 22 fast-break points, 16 scored by Dybantsa himself — in transition, Dybantsa simply moves at a different speed than anyone else on the court and can finish through contact.
But Dybantsa doesn’t have the decision-making capabilities of a true lead ball handler, averaging three turnovers per game at a rate of 14.9 percent. It’s not an especially high turnover rate given a usage rate that ranks among the highest in the country, but the loss of a secondary ball handler in injured guard Richie Saunders has impacted Dybantsa, who turned the ball over seven times against Colorado after Saunders tore his ACL, gave the ball away six times in the win over Kansas State, and had five turnovers in the Big 12 Tournament quarterfinals loss to Houston.
So Texas needs to gain some extra possessions by forcing turnovers by Dybantsa, which isn’t a team strength — the Horns rank No. 348 nationally, turning opponents over on just 13.3 percent of their possessions.
The loss of Saunders has another major impact on the Cougars, too, and not just in scoring, but in spacing the court, as Saunders still leads BYU with 64 made threes. While guard Robert Wright III is an excellent shooter, hitting at 42.2 percent on four attempts per game, the only other volume shooter for the Cougars is guard Kennard Davis Jr., who only makes 32.1 percent of his shots from beyond the arc.
The lack of credible shooters around Dybantsa could allow Miller to double Dybantsa or use off-ball defenders to sit in gaps to take away driving lanes to force him to pass the ball or settle for mid-range jump shots.
When teams have been able to beat BYU without Saunders, it’s often because Dybantsa falls in love with the three-point shot and doesn’t make them or doesn’t get to the free-throw line frequently — if he’s hitting threes and getting to the free-throw line above his per-game average, the win probability drops quickly for Texas.
And Wright is certainly dangerous, as well, scoring 27 points in the win over Texas Tech in the regular-season finale and 39 points in the overtime victory over Colorado. Against the Buffaloes, Wright hit all four of his threes and 11 free throws.
“They’re led by a great, great player, but they’re a good team, too,” Miller said.
Tip is at 6:25 p.m. Central on TBS.