2026 NFL Draft QB Rankings: Fernando Mendoza, Ty Simpson lead top-heavy group of prospects
· Yahoo Sports
It’s the opening of every conversation about the 2026 NFL Draft: this is not a deep quarterback class. That doesn’t mean it lacks intrigue or debate. The world is aware Fernando Mendoza will be the number one pick, but what do the Raiders have to do to set him up for success?
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Are teams buying into the first half of 2025 Ty Simpson, or an end of season stretch that was rough? For Garrett Nussmeier, Drew Allar and Cade Klubnik, they are trying to prove to organizations that 2024 was more of a reflection of their game than 2025. Then, you have redemption arcs (Carson Beck) and a whole lot of developmental arms. Let’s break down the top 10, with some honorable mentions that just missed the cut.
1. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
Mendoza will be the number one pick in the draft after making tremendous strides from his 2024 season at Cal to his 2025 national title season at Indiana. He cut down the sacks he took from 40 to 25, decreased his turnover worthy play rate from 3.5% to 2.6% and increased his yards per attempt when pressured from just 5.8 to 7.6 (per PFF).
Mendoza is accurate to all three levels of the field and has developed a great understanding of when and where to attack down the field. When he’s at his best, there are clear shades of Matt Ryan and Jared Goff in his game. If the Raiders can keep him upright, he’ll be able to stabilize their passing attack in a heavy play action system under new head coach Klint Kubiak.
2. Ty Simpson, Alabama
In his first year as Alabama’s starter, it was a tale of two seasons for Ty Simpson. In weeks 1-8, he threw 18 touchdowns, one interception and averaged 276 passing yards per game. In his final eight games he threw just 10 touchdowns, had 11 turnover worthy plays and averaged 204 passing yards per game.
Did Simpson’s play decline as the pressure of the season mounted? How hampered was he by injury? It’s no secret Alabama’s poor run game and 30 total drops by his pass catchers did not help, either.
Let’s get into what’s on tape. He is a slightly undersized but intelligent quarterback with mobility. While his arm strength is average, Simpson plays with a base that is in sync with his upper body. That’s why when properly protected, he averaged over 8 yards per attempt and threw 24 touchdowns to just four interceptions.
When pressured, things fell apart too often mechanically. This led to Simpson’s decline in accuracy down the stretch. He also had a 5.5% sack rate (30 sacks taken), which was 47th percentile in the country (per PFF).
Despite this and being a one-year starter, there is still promise with Simpson as a prospect. He completed 45 of his 63 passes (71.4%) in the intermediate middle of the field this year. He sees things well and could benefit not only from time, but a proper supporting cast. It is highly likely a team takes a shot on him in round one.
3. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
It was a tumultuous final college season for Nussmeier after showing a ton of promise in 2024. He was clearly banged up, but checking in at just 203 pounds at the NFL Combine does not ease concerns of that being a potential pattern in the pros.
The 2024 tape has a lot of highlights for Nussmeier. He had a borderline elite 2.7% sack rate, despite limited mobility. He consistently challenged the opposition vertically, with a whopping 86 passing attempts of 20+ yards (completing 31 of them with a 104.9 passer rating, per PFF). Unlike many young quarterbacks that drift backwards, he displays a good understanding of when to climb the pocket with his eyes downfield. There is no denying he will hang in there and take a hit, playing a fearless brand of football.
With all of that being said, 2025 magnified plenty of issues. Nussmeier is a risk taker, it’s what makes him great during his highs but treacherous to an offense during his lows. There are plenty of deep throws where ballhawking defensive backs were able to pounce on. His toughness is admirable, but teams will have concerns over his durability at the next level. He is not athletic enough to create on the move and escape NFL caliber pass rushers.
Nussmeier projects as a late day two selection that can quickly become a high-caliber backup.
4. Carson Beck, Miami
Beck has good size, plenty of experience on the highest stages of college football and can operate like a pro from a clean pocket. He is a full-field reader that posted plenty of anticipation throws on tape at two different programs. In 2025, he did a good job avoiding sacks, only taking 16 on 525 dropbacks. Beck was particularly effective off of play action at Miami, where he averaged nine yards per attempt and completed 78% of his attempts.
Despite a low sack rate, Beck’s troubles when pressured have been a consistent problem across his three years as a starter. In 2024, he had a turnover worthy play percentage of 9.4% when pressured and that number remained high at Miami in 2025 at 6.1%. He does not possess the scrambling ability to overcome these situations. While he doesn’t have poor arm strength, it was much more impressive before undergoing UCL surgery in 2024.
Beck showed growth as a stable game manager throughout plenty of stretches during the 2025 season, but it’s tough to imagine a ceiling beyond that at the next level.
5. Drew Allar, Penn State
Allar is my fifth-ranked quarterback, but this is the tier of my rankings where day three draft grades already begin.
Allar’s play started to find an upward trajectory in 2024, but he plateaued in 2025 before suffering a season-ending injury. He’s big with a power arm, essentially possessing the physical tools teams look for at the position.
Yet, he’s not an impressive thrower when it comes to timing, control and consistency. His play suffered against the better teams on Penn State’s schedule, which was glaring in 2024. His raw talent will always be enticing for developmental reasons, but he wasn’t able to tap into that enough across his multiple years as a college starter.
6. Cole Payton, North Dakota State
Payton is a one-year starter that is built like a linebacker and runs like a battering ram. The lefty has an unorthodox, elongated release. As a passer he lacks polish and consistency, but throws with surprising touch to make bucket tosses down the field.
He is a big, athletic project quarterback that could see some short-yardage and goal line looks when developing on the back end of a roster.
7. Joey Aguilar, Tennessee
Aguilar is a well-traveled (four programs), seventh year senior with a dense frame and tough mindset standing tall in the pocket. He operated a Tennessee offense that ran play action on nearly half his dropbacks, where he confidently ripped throws in the middle of the field.
Aguilar can fall into a habit of losing his base when throwing, leading to throws behind or above receivers. He puts a lot of air under his deep balls, but more often than not gave his targets a chance to make a play on the ball. His confidence as a pure pocket passer will give him a shot to carve out a role as a long-term backup.
8. Sawyer Robertson, Baylor
Robertson has a big arm, desired size for the position and has put a ton of high-level throws on tape across two years as a starter. He is a high variance watch, putting a pro throw between a corner and a safety on one play, then missing one you’d expect him to hit ten out of ten times the next series.
He’s thrown 20 interceptions over the last two seasons, missing roaming linebackers and safeties in zone coverage that are lurking. Robertson has a lot of natural arm talent, but because of that he’ll confidently drift backwards and throw off of his back foot. His tools will get him drafted, but his ascension from depth arm to legitimate backup will depend on eliminating consistent bad habits.
9. Taylen Green, Arkansas
Green is a massive quarterback prospect with elite athleticism. He has a strong arm and can launch the ball while on the move. When he breaks from the pocket and has room in front of him, he really builds up speed with huge strides.
His process as a dropback passer is delayed, from his timing to his actual release. He’s not a smooth, accurate thrower, and 21 turnover plays in 2025 show his questionable decision-making. Green is a draft and stash prospect with immense upside, but a floor that could struggle to stay on an active roster as a second stringer.
10. Cade Klubnik, Clemson
Klubnik was another quarterback that entered 2025 on an upward trajectory, but things unfortunately unraveled to halt that momentum. He has a smaller build but mobility to get himself out of trouble (463 rushing yards in 2024).
Klubnik has a quick release to get the ball out efficiently, especially when he has his first read open. After that, things got chaotic. He has the foot speed to buy himself more time or flat out take off, but too often he will drift backwards and throw inaccurately off platform. When he was moved off his spot by any pressure in 2025, the results instantly trended downward.
The 2024 tape showed there is a quarterback in there that can drive the ball into tight windows in the middle of the field, at times push things vertically and be more of a threat with his legs. His pass catchers dropping 53 targets over the last two seasons (per PFF) did not help him, but his inconsistent ball placement factored into that as well.
While ranked at the bottom of this list, Klubnik has a higher floor (but very low ceiling) than a few players in front of him to carve out a backup role at the next level.
Honorable mentions: Luke Altmyer (Illinois), Diego Pavia (Vanderbilt), Jalon Daniels (Kansas), Miller Moss (Louisville), Haynes King (Georgia Tech), Behren Morton (Texas Tech), Joe Fagnano (UConn), Athan Kaliakmanis (Rutgers)